GIS-Based Earth Movement Prediction in a Tremor‑Prone Region in Northcentral Nigeria Using an Integrated Approach

Abstract

This study develops a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based integrated model (RQ‑PABLES method) to predict areas prone to earth movement within a tremor-prone region of north-central Nigeria. The RQ‑PABLES approach combines geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, nuclear, and GIS datasets to assess the causes and predict potential future tremors. Eight weighted parameters, radon in groundwater, radon in subsoil, quarry proximity, slope/basement relief, percolation, elevation, and lineament density, were integrated to produce an earth-movement prediction map. Field validation confirmed that quarry activities are the dominant cause of tremors in the study area. The results indicate high radon concentrations exceeding EPA and NIS limits, confirming radiological implications associated with subsurface movement. The integrated model successfully delineated zones as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, and ‘not likely’ to experience movement in the event of future tremors. The RQ-PABLES workflow provides a reproducible framework for assessing geodynamic risks in intraplate settings, informing urban planning and quarry regulation policies.